An outlook of the Application Laboratory of Jamstec – the Japanese national forecaster – said Kerala, south Tamil Nadu, and coastal Karnataka may receive deficient rainfall during the month.
Usual quantum
The rest of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, Bihar, and parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab are likely to receive less than normal rainfall.
Areas expected to receive the usual quantum of rainfall are Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and the Met subdivisions of west Madhya Pradesh, Konkan-Goa and Marathawada.
The outlook for April also indicates a similar trend except that the rainfall deficiency scenario to the South-West (Kerala and Coastal Karnataka) might witness some respite.
But in May, the rainfall deficiency will start growing to cover the South and extend to North into Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and East Maharashtra. Gujarat, Rajasthan and parts of west Madhya Pradesh will continue to receive close to normal quantum of showers even during May, according to the Japanese forecast.
Heating trend
The heating of the land during the three summer months of March, April and May too shows some interesting variation in which the ‘top heat’ shifts from the North-West to elsewhere in the country. As expected, North-West India will be subjected to maximum heating during March compared to the rest of the land.
Parts of south Gujarat, coastal Odisha and coastal Tamil Nadu may stay cooler.
In April though, the top heat will shift to the East and South with a narrow corridor from Kerala all the way up Central India and further up to east Uttar Pradesh will be subjected to concentrated heating. North-West India and adjoining West India (including Gujarat) are likely to experience see less than normal heat or even stay relatively cooler during April.
As for May, the area of maximum heating will be confined further to a narrow corridor linking the South Peninsula with west Uttar Pradesh traversing east Maharashtra and east Madhya Pradesh.
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